Super El Niño Could Become One of Strongest on Record
New forecasts show increasing confidence in a strong El Niño.
It could become one of the strongest on record. The tropical Pacific Ocean is warming rapidly. Experts warn of record global temperatures and huge humanitarian impacts. Sea surface temperatures are now around 0.5C above normal. That is one threshold used to suggest the onset of El Niño. The natural warming of the Pacific is expected to strengthen over the next few months. It could peak as a very strong, or so-called super El Niño, in the autumn.
Concerns About Global Weather
Scientists are concerned about the consequences. Global weather patterns could be severely affected. There is a likelihood that 2027 will be the warmest year on record.
NOAA’s latest outlook suggests El Niño will begin within the month. They have increased confidence to a two-in-three chance that it will be strong or very strong by winter. The rate of warming over the last few weeks has been rapid.
Rare Occurrence
Nathanial Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA, described it as a “rare occurrence”. The shift would go from La Niña in winter to a potentially strong El Niño within a year. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology also forecasts El Niño. It uses a stricter criterion of 0.8C above average. They also look for reversed trade winds in the western Pacific.
