Global Warming Acceleration Confirmed: 1.5°C Limit at Risk Before 2030
New research confirms Earth is heating up at a record pace. Global temperatures are now rising nearly twice as fast as they did just a few decades ago. Scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) published the findings in Geophysical Research Letters. They analyzed temperature data from five major global datasets.
Warming Rate Has Doubled Since 2015
The study reveals a significant shift. Since around 2015, the warming rate has jumped to about 0.35°C per decade. For comparison, the rate between 1970 and 2015 was just under 0.2°C per decade. This makes the last ten years the fastest warming period since 1880.Researchers achieved this clarity by filtering out natural events. Phenomena like El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles can temporarily hide the true warming trend. After removing these factors, the acceleration became clear. “We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since around 2015,” said Grant Foster, a US statistics expert and co-author of the study. The statistical certainty across all datasets is over 98 percent.
What This Means for the 1.5°C Climate Target
The adjusted data shows the acceleration starting around 2013 or 2014. Even after accounting for recent El Niño and solar factors, 2023 and 2024 remain the hottest years on record. The study focuses on detecting the trend change, not explaining every cause. However, the findings have serious implications. If this rapid warming continues, Earth will permanently exceed the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement before 2030.Lead author Stefan Rahmstorf from PIK emphasized the urgency. “How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to zero,” he stated.
