Oil Prices Climb as OPEC+ Limits Output Hike, Russia Sanctions Loom‎

Oil Prices Edge Higher on Limited OPEC+ Supply Hike and Russia Risk

‎‎Oil prices moved upward on Tuesday as energy markets reacted to a smaller-than-anticipated production increase from OPEC+ and growing fears of fresh sanctions on Russian oil exports. Brent crude climbed by 35 cents (0.53%) to trade at $66.37 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose by 32 cents (0.51%) to reach $62.58 per barrel as of 0335 GMT. ‎‎OPEC+, which includes eight member nations of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with allied producers, announced on Sunday that it would raise oil output by just 137,000 barrels per day starting in October. This increase is significantly below the 555,000 bpd added in both August and September, and also less than the 411,000 bpd hikes seen earlier in June and July. Many market watchers had anticipated a more aggressive supply ramp-up. ‎Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that this output decision represents a shift from the planned cuts that were initially scheduled to remain until the end of 2026. The restrained supply move follows the recent accelerated return of previously withheld production. ‎Despite earlier projections, oil demand has underperformed expectations this year, according to Haitong Securities. Combined with increased output, this has fueled ongoing concerns about a potential oversupply in the crude market—one of the key factors influencing price trends in 2025. ‎Geopolitical tension also played a role in supporting oil prices. Following Russia’s largest aerial assault on Ukraine to date, which damaged government infrastructure in Kyiv, speculation intensified around the possibility of new sanctions. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated readiness to advance to a second wave of restrictions, while European Union officials met with their U.S. counterparts in Washington to coordinate a transatlantic response. ‎If enacted, these sanctions could reduce Russian oil exports, tightening global supply and placing further upward pressure on prices. ‎Additionally, markets are watching the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where there is an 89.4% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. A lower rate environment could stimulate economic growth and fuel demand for oil globally.