Wildfire smoke is fast becoming one of the deadliest climate threats in the United States, according to new research from Stanford University. A study published in Nature projects that by 2050, smoke-related deaths could rise to 70,000 per year, far exceeding prior estimates and creating economic damages greater than all other U.S. climate impacts combined.
Fires in the Western U.S. and Canada are increasingly larger, longer-lasting, and more destructive, spreading smoke across the nation. Unlike traditional seasonal haze, this pollution
now lingers for weeks and travels thousands of miles. Researchers found no U.S. community is immune to exposure.
“There’s a broad understanding that wildfire activity and wildfire smoke exposure are changing quickly. This is a lived experience, unfortunately, for folks on the West Coast over the last decade and folks on the East Coast in the last few years,” said study co-author Marshall Burke, professor at Stanford’s Doerr School of Sustainability. “Our paper puts some numbers on what that change in exposure means for health outcomes, both now and in the future as the climate warms.”
The team analyzed U.S. death records (2006–2019) alongside smoke and wind data, then modeled future fire activity. They found deaths tied to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from wildfire smoke could climb more than 70% compared to the 40,000 annual deaths estimated from 2011–2020. The biggest projected increases occur in California, New York, Washington, Texas, and Pennsylvania.
Even under aggressive emissions cuts, smoke-driven deaths may still exceed 60,000 annually by 2050. “Our study shows climate models are missing a huge part of the climate impacts in the U.S. – it’s like leaving the main character out of a movie,” said lead author Minghao Qiu.
Experts warn urgent adaptation is needed, from improving indoor air filtration to managing forest fuels, to reduce this growing nationwide health crisis.
Wildfire Smoke Could Kill 70,000 Americans Annually by 2050, Stanford Study Warns
