Gold jumped above $3,480 per ounce on Tuesday, setting a fresh all-time high as traders price in a near-certain rate cut at the September Fed meeting, a softer U.S. dollar, and persistent safe-haven demand. Markets now assign about a 90 percent probability to a 25-basis-point cut, lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and boosting gold’s appeal. Retreating Treasury yields and a weaker dollar have further funneled flows into the metal as a store of value. Political and legal uncertainty is adding fuel. Questions around Fed independence following President Donald Trump’s attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, alongside a U.S. appeals court ruling that most of Trump’s tariffs are illegal (still in place until mid-October pending appeals), have heightened policy-stability concerns and hedging demand. Technically, Tuesday’s surge confirmed a breakout from a months-long symmetrical triangle. The 20-day EMA near 3,382and50-dayEMAaround3,382 and 50-day EMA around 3,382and50-dayEMAaround3,352 supported consolidation, with the 100-day at 3,279and200-dayat3,279 and 200-day at 3,279and200-dayat3,099 anchoring the broader uptrend. Immediate resistance sits at 3,500,withpotentialextensionto3,500, with potential extension to 3,500,withpotentialextensionto3,550 and 3,600ifpricesustainsabovethatlevel.Supportsare3,600 if price sustains above that level. Supports are 3,600ifpricesustainsabovethatlevel.Supportsare3,400, then 3,350and3,350 and 3,350and3,280.Momentum is strong but stretched: RSI near 69 hints at possible short-term consolidation, though dips toward 55–60 may attract buyers. The next catalyst is Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls; a softer print could propel a break above 3,500,while strength risks a pull back toward3,500, while strength risks a pullback toward 3,500,whilestrength risks a pull back toward3,400
3,480 as Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Weaker Dollar Fuel Safe-Haven Rush
