FBR Revenue Shortfall Deepens as November Gap Widens
Pakistan’s FBR revenue shortfall continued to grow in November. The gap reached Rs143 billion as economic activity remained slow. In addition, higher tax rates and industrial closures added pressure on the system.
Officials still hope to cross the Rs900 billion mark for November. However, the widening gap has raised concerns. The shortfall for July to October stayed near Rs68 billion a month. As a result, November’s spike to Rs143 billion surprised many observers.
Rising Fiscal Pressure
The government now faces a tough challenge. It seems unlikely that the annual target of Rs14,130 billion can be achieved. Even the revised goal of Rs13,979 billion, agreed with the IMF, appears out of reach at the current pace.
Top officials have also admitted weaknesses in the country’s growth model. They agreed that high rates on the formal sector are not sustainable. However, they have yet to decide how to reduce tax rates while staying within IMF limits.
Pakistan and the IMF expect the FBR to collect Rs6.49 trillion by December 2025. The bureau has gathered Rs4.7 trillion in the first five months. Therefore, it must collect Rs1.756 trillion in December to stay on track.
Numbers Tell the Story
Provisional data shows the FBR’s net collection at Rs4.727 trillion after paying Rs0.254 trillion in refunds. Gross receipts stood at Rs5.04 trillion. Income tax brought in Rs2.231 trillion, while sales tax generated Rs1.875 trillion. The bureau also collected Rs0.326 trillion in federal excise duty and Rs0.547 trillion in customs duty.
In November alone, gross collection touched Rs0.995 trillion. Refunds of Rs0.48 trillion reduced the net figure to Rs0.892 trillion. The target for the month was Rs1.035 trillion. Therefore, the shortfall climbed to Rs0.143 trillion.
The FBR recorded Rs3.834 trillion in July October FY2026, showing an 11.4% rise from the previous year. However, the growing gap means the bureau must push hard to achieve Rs1.75 trillion in December.
If the December target is missed, new IMF mandated taxes may follow. These could include higher GST on solar panels, increased telecom taxes, and more FED on fertilisers and pesticides. The government accepted these measures earlier to avoid raising the general GST rate to 19%.
