OBR Says UK Public Finances Still Tough Despite Improved Forecasts
A senior official has said the chancellor did not mislead the public about the state of UK public finances. He explained that the situation before the Budget remained tough, even with signs of improvement. As a result, he believes her earlier comments still reflect reality.
OBR Clarifies Forecasts and Government Statements
Prof David Miles from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) spoke to MPs about the issue. He said Rachel Reeves’s remarks about the “very challenging” outlook were “not inconsistent” with the information available at the time. His statement therefore offered clarity on the debate over whether the government overstated financial pressure.
Reeves has also pushed back against criticism. She argued that she acted transparently and stressed that the OBR’s improved forecast did not remove the country’s long-term pressures. In addition, she said responsible planning requires honest communication about risks and difficult decisions.
Chancellor Faces Tough Spending Decisions
However, Prof Miles highlighted that the government still faces a demanding fiscal landscape. He said the more positive forecast does not eliminate financial strain. Instead, it shows only slight easing after months of uncertainty. As a result, the chancellor continues to face a “very difficult Budget and very difficult choices”.
He added that the improvement offers limited room for major policy changes. Therefore, the government must prioritise spending and review tax options carefully. Many experts agree that the economic outlook remains fragile, even with better-than-expected data.
The discussion has also renewed interest in how the OBR forms its forecasts. For example, some MPs asked whether global risks could affect upcoming predictions. Miles responded that international factors always matter, especially during periods of financial volatility.
In addition, he noted that long-term planning must consider inflation trends, growth forecasts and public service demands. These factors will shape future Budgets and guide decisions in the months ahead.
